��������

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, rebounding from a five-week low in the previous day, on concerns of supply disruptions after US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs on India over its Russian crude purchases.

Brent crude futures gained 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $68.12 a barrel by 9:45 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 43 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $65.59 a barrel.

“There’s still plenty of uncertainty over the US imposing secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil ... market chatter is growing that China’s purchases of Russian oil may come into focus next,” ING commodity strategists said on Thursday.

“If India were to stop buying Russian oil amid tariff threats, we believe the market would be able to cope with the loss of this supply,” they said, adding that the bigger risk was if other buyers also started to shun Russian oil.

Both oil contracts fell by more than $1 on Tuesday to settle at their lowest in five weeks, marking a fourth session of losses, on oversupply concerns from OPEC+’s planned September output hike.

“Investors are assessing whether India will reduce its Russian crude purchases in response to Trump’s threats, which could tighten supply, but it remains to be seen if that will actually happen,” said Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities.

“If India’s imports remain steady, WTI is likely to stay within the $60-$70 range for the rest of the month,” he said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, a move that will end its most recent output cut earlier than planned.

OPEC+ pumps about half of the world’s oil and had been curtailing production for several years to support the market, but the group introduced a series of accelerated output hikes this year to regain market share.

At the same time, US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil as Washington seeks ways to push Moscow for a peace deal with Ukraine could upset supply flows as Indian refiners seek alternatives and Russian crude is redirected to other buyers.

Trump on Tuesday again threatened higher tariffs on Indian goods over the country’s Russian oil purchases over the next 24 hours. Trump also said declining energy prices could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the war in Ukraine.

New Delhi called Trump’s threat “unjustified” and vowed to protect its economic interests, deepening a trade rift between the two countries.

Nomura’s Takashima also pointed to industry data showing crude inventories in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, as supportive for the oil market.

US crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said on Tuesday. That compares with a Reuters poll estimate of a 600,000 barrels draw for the week to August 1.

The US Energy Information Administration is due to release its weekly inventory data on Wednesday. 

RIYADH: Non-oil business activity in the Middle East showed mixed trends in July, with Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar maintaining growth, while Egypt demonstrated signs of recovery and Lebanon remained under pressure.

According to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index report released by S&P Global, Kuwait’s PMI ticked up to 53.5 in July from 53.1 in June, signalling a solid monthly improvement in the health of the non-oil private sector. 

This robust performance of non-energy business conditions in Kuwait aligns with the wider trend observed in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, where countries are pursuing economic diversification efforts to reduce dependence on crude revenues. 

“Kuwait’s non-oil private sector began the second half of 2025 in much the same way as it ended the first, with output and new orders up markedly again in July,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

Survey panelists linked higher new orders in July to advertising efforts and price discounting, which helped to further raise the output. 

According to the report, employment levels in Kuwait’s non-oil sector remained broadly unchanged in July, following a record increase in June. 

S&P Global added that inflationary pressures softened in the seventh month of the year, with purchase prices and staff costs increasing at the slowest rates in six and four months, respectively.

“Firms will have been cheered by a softening of inflationary pressures during the month, but the reluctance to hire extra staff did mean that backlogs of work accumulated again,” said Harker. 

The survey data also revealed that Kuwaiti companies remained strongly optimistic about future growth, on the hopes that output will rise further in the remaining months of the year. 

“The prospects for further expansions in new business in the months ahead appear bright, and we’ll hopefully see this reflected in renewed hiring activity soon,” added Harker. 

UAE’s PMI declines amid geopolitical tensions

UAE’s PMI slipped to 52.9 in July from 53.5 in June but remained well above the 50 mark that signals expansion of the non-energy business conditions. 

S&P Global attributed this decline to a slowdown in new business growth across the non-oil economy, as ongoing regional tensions made some clients hesitant to commit to new spending.

Panelists who took part in the survey also pointed to weaker tourism activity and headwinds from global trade disruptions to lower activities in July. 

Despite this decline, output expanded sharply in June, as non-oil firms in the Emirates sought to prevent further increases in backlogs of work.

“Business conditions improved in July, but the rate of growth was the weakest since the middle of 2021. As has been the case recently, output was supported by positive demand trends,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

He added: “New order volumes helped firms to expand, but this trend is declining, with the latest data indicating the softest rise in incoming new work in almost four years.” 

The softer increase in new orders contributed to a slight easing in the rate of activity expansion in July, which was further dampened by intensified competitive pressures

The report also revealed that some firms reported that output increased in response to new sales opportunities, rising client incomes, advancements in technological investment, and the clearance of pending work.

The July survey data indicated that job growth softened in over the month, marking the weakest uplift in four months. 

“Should regional tensions ease, we may see a recovery in sales growth in the coming months. This would also be supported by the subdued price environment, with input costs rising only modestly despite the pace of increase reaching a three-month high,” said Owen. 

He added: “Nevertheless, the ongoing trends of rising competition, limited inventory, constrained hiring growth and relatively low confidence among surveyed firms suggest that downside risks remain elevated.” 

In the same report, S&P Global revealed that Dubai’s PMI rose to 53.5, up from a 45-month low of 51.8 in June, signalling a solid upturn in operating conditions across the Emirate’s non-oil private sector economy.

Dubai non-oil firms also expanded their output at the sharpest rate in five months in July, while continuing efforts to increase employment and inventories.

Non-energy business conditions improve in Qatar

In a separate report, S&P Global revealed that business conditions in Qatar’s non-energy sector continued to improve in July, with the country’s PMI remaining above the 50-expansion zone for the 19th consecutive month. 

The country’s PMI fell to 51.4 in July from 52 in June.

The report revealed that non-energy private sector employment in Qatar increased at the second-strongest rate in the eight-year survey history, driving a further sharp increase in wages.

“The PMI remained above the neutral threshold at 51.4 in July, signalling sustained overall growth in the non-energy private sector. But the headline figure continues to mask underlying weakness in demand and output, being heavily supported by another round of strong employment growth,” said Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

Companies in the non-energy private sector remained optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for activity in July, due to expected growth in investment, tourism, and industrial development, as well as a recovery in construction, population expansion, and government initiatives. 

Egypt’s PMI nearing growth trajectory 

In another report, S&P Global revealed that Egypt’s PMI increased to 49.5 in July, up from 48.8 in June, but still remaining below the 50 no-change threshold for the fifth consecutive month. 

According to S&P Global, Egyptian non-oil business conditions deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in July, although the decline was less severe than in June, with firms reporting softer contractions in both activity and new orders.

The report added that businesses increased headcounts for the first time since last October, while cuts in purchases softened. 

“Although the Egypt PMI stayed below 50 in July, indicating a worsening of non-oil business conditions, the latest survey data provided some cause for optimism. Several firms reported the securing of new work, which helped to soften the rate of decline in sales,” said Owen. 

He added: “Businesses also had the confidence to hire new staff, leading to an increase in employment for the first time in nine months, if only a fractional one.”

Input prices also rose at a slightly quicker pace in July, with survey panelists attributing this trend to higher costs for items such as cement, fuel and packaging. Increased staff wages also contributed to cost pressures, although the rate of growth was mild. 

Regarding future activity, companies in Egypt continued to express concerns about demand strength and broader economic uncertainty, with optimism improving slightly from June’s record low. 

Lebanon’s PMI drops 

According to the latest report, Lebanon’s private sector economy remained under pressure at the start of the second half of the year, with the PMI in July dropping to 48.9 from 49.2 in June. 

The report revealed that business activity volumes across Lebanon’s private sector fell further in July, extending the current sequence of contraction to five months, driven by subdued demand conditions, particularly from abroad.

“The July 2025 BLOM Lebanon PMI dropped to 48.9. This result was not unexpected as the economy lacked any meaningful demand stimulus: the government does not have any money to spend and the private sector is not able and willing to spend,” said Ali Bolbol, chief economist and head of research at BLOMInvest BANK. 

Private sector companies in Lebanon lowered their purchasing volumes as a part of their efforts to reduce costs. 

Looking ahead, surveyed companies remained pessimistic toward the year-ahead outlook for business activity, with these firms expressing negative consequences of a potential escalation of conflict and tensions across the Middle East region.