Peace prospects look bleak in Myanmar as a civil war rages

Peace prospects look bleak in Myanmar as a civil war rages
Above, Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing. Four years after the military coup of Feb. 1, 2021, Myanmar is still in the grip of a bloody civil war. (Myanmar Military Information Team via AFP)
Short Url
Updated 01 February 2025

Peace prospects look bleak in Myanmar as a civil war rages

Peace prospects look bleak in Myanmar as a civil war rages
  • Political situation remains tense with no negotiation space in sight between the military government and the major opposition groups
  • The UN Human Rights Office said the military ramped up violence against civilians last year to unprecedented levels

BANGKOK: Peace prospects look bleak in Myanmar as a civil war rages despite international pressure on the military four years after it seized power from an elected civilian government.
The political situation remains tense with no negotiation space in sight between the military government and the major opposition groups fighting against it.
The four years after the army’s takeover on Feb. 1, 2021, have created a profound situation of multiple, overlapping crises with nearly half the population in poverty and the economy in disarray, the UN Development Program said.
The UN Human Rights Office said the military ramped up violence against civilians last year to unprecedented levels, inflicting the heaviest civilian death toll since the army takeover as its grip on power eroded.
The army launched wave after wave of retaliatory airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians and civilian populated areas, forced thousands of young people into military service, conducted arbitrary arrests and prosecutions, caused mass displacement, and denied access to humanitarians, even in the face of natural disasters, the rights office said in a statement Friday.
“After four years, it is deeply distressing to find that the situation on the ground for civilians is only getting worse by the day,” UN human rights chief Volker Turk said. “Even as the military’s power wanes, their atrocities and violence have expanded in scope and intensity,” he said, adding that the retaliatory nature of the attacks were designed to control, intimidate, and punish the population.
The United States, United Kingdom, European Union and others criticized the military takeover in a statement that also called for the release of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.
They said nearly 20 million people need humanitarian assistance and up to 3.5 million people are displaced internally, an increase of nearly 1 million in the last year. They also expressed concern about increased cross-border crime in Myanmar such as drug and human trafficking and online scam operations, which affect neighboring countries and risk broader instability.
“The current trajectory is not sustainable for Myanmar or the region,” the countries said in the joint statement that also included Australia, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland.
The status of the fighting
The military’s 2021 takeover prompted widespread public protests, whose violent suppression by security forces triggered an armed resistance that has now led to a state of civil war. Ethnic minority militias and people’s defense forces that support Myanmar’s main opposition control large parts of the country, while the military holds much of central Myanmar and big cities including the capital, Naypyidaw.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which keeps detailed tallies of arrests and casualties linked to the repression of the military government, said that at least 6,239 were killed and 28,444 were arrested since the takeover. The actual death toll is likely to be much higher since the group does not generally include deaths on the side of the military government and cannot easily verify cases in remote areas.
Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank, told The Associated Press that Myanmar’s current situation is at its worst with peace and development being pushed back.
“What’s worse is that the sovereignty which ever-proclaimed by the military is losing, and the country’s borders could even shift,” Aung Thu Nyein said in a text message.
Myanmar’s army suffered unprecedented battlefield defeats over the past year, when a coalition of ethnic armed groups won victories in the northeast near the Chinese border and in the western state of Rakhine.
The ethnic rebels were able to quickly capture several towns, military bases and two important regional commands, and their offensive weakened the army’s grip in other parts of the country.
The ethnic minorities have been fighting for decades for greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government and are loosely allied with the People’s Defense Force, the pro-democracy armed resistance formed after the army’s 2021 takeover.
The UN Human Rights Office and rights groups including Amnesty International also made rare allegations in recent statements that armed groups opposing the military have also committed human rights violations in areas under their control.
The status of election plans
In pursuit of a political solution, the military government is pushing for an election, which it has promised to hold this year. Critics say the election would not be free or fair as civil rights have been curtailed and many political opponents imprisoned and the election would be an attempt to normalize military control.
On Friday, the military government extended a state of emergency another six months because it said more time was needed to restore stability before the election, state-run MRTV television reported. No exact date for the polls was given.
Tom Andrews, a special rapporteur working with the UN human rights office, said it wasn’t possible to hold a legitimate election while arresting, detaining, torturing and executing leaders of the opposition and when it is illegal for journalists or citizens to criticize the military government.
“Governments should dismiss these plans for what they are – a fraud,” Tom Andrews said.


Ukraine fears being sidelined by Iran-Israel war

Ukraine fears being sidelined by Iran-Israel war
Updated 2 sec ago

Ukraine fears being sidelined by Iran-Israel war

Ukraine fears being sidelined by Iran-Israel war
Kyiv has welcomed Israeli attacks on a country which has directly aided and provided weapons to Moscow for its own strikes on Ukraine
The possibility of weaker support and attention from Washington, however, concerns Kyiv

KYIV: Fighting between Iran and Israel could deflect global attention from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even bolster Kremlin’s war effort, Ukrainian officials say.

Israel launched a massive bombing campaign on Iran last week that prompted Tehran — a close ally of Russia — to strike back with missiles and drones.

The conflict has pushed up the price of oil — a key revenue stream funding Russia’s invasion.

“For Ukraine, the challenge is the price of oil, because if prices remain high for a long time, the Russians will earn more,” a senior Ukrainian political source told AFP.

However, Kyiv has welcomed Israeli attacks on a country which has directly aided and provided weapons to Moscow for its own strikes on Ukraine.

The campaign has left several high-ranking Iranian military officials dead and put pressure on Tehran’s military capacity that is likely to limit the practical support it can provide to Russia.

“The Iranian regime is Russia’s ally, so the more they lose, the better,” the Ukrainian source said.

“Overall, Israel is doing the whole world a favor. That is a fact,” the source added.

The possibility of weaker support and attention from Washington, however, concerns Kyiv.

The administration of US President Donald Trump, Israel’s closest ally, has made clear that its security priorities are the Middle East and Asia, with Europe lower on the list.

This could mean further Russian advances on the battlefield or deadly aerial attacks will meet with a muted reaction from a White House that already sees the Ukraine conflict mainly as a European problem.

Kyiv’s efforts to lobby for more support from Washington have been complicated by tense relations between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader.

Zelensky recently told journalists that Trump was “obsessed with Iran” and conceded that its bombing campaign with Israel spelt risks for Kyiv.

“No one is claiming to have a relationship more important than America and Israel, but we would like to see the aid to Ukraine would not be reduced because of this,” he said.

He referred to Israel’s war in Gaza that was sparked by a deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas, as a precedent for this.

“It was a factor that slowed down assistance to Ukraine,” he added.

In an interview with US media, the Ukrainian leader said at the beginning of this month that Washington could send “20,000” missiles needed by for Ukraine to shoot down Russian drones to the Middle East instead.

Senior officials in Zelensky’s office told AFP after the outbreak of the war in Gaza that it had spurred Ukraine to focus to developing its own arms industry.

Russia has rained down thousands of drones and missiles on Ukraine since it launched its full-scale invasion early in 2022, including Iranian-made and designed projectiles.

Israel has claimed to have attacked production sites in Iran, which has also launched silos of missiles at Israel that now cannot be sent to Russia for attacks on Ukraine.

“Let’s hope that the corresponding production or transfer (of weapons) to the Russians will decrease. This helps Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

The British defense ministry said Iran’s supply of weapons to Russia could slow as a result of Tehran’s war with Israel.

But it said global focus on the Middle East could overall help Moscow.

“Russia almost certainly perceives some benefit in the conflict as it distracts international focus from its war against Ukraine,” it said on social media.

Moscow also produces its own drones and missiles, and has received projectiles from North Korea.

Ukrainian military analyst and blogger Sergiy Sternenko was among voices to issue caution against celebrating the attacks on Iran.

“Do not rush to get too excited about the strikes on Iran. Of course, Iran is our enemy, and we wish these pigs the worst. But fighting in the Middle East will inevitably lead to higher oil prices,” he wrote.

South Africa declares national disaster as flooding death toll rises to 92

South Africa declares national disaster as flooding death toll rises to 92
Updated 6 min 40 sec ago

South Africa declares national disaster as flooding death toll rises to 92

South Africa declares national disaster as flooding death toll rises to 92
  • At least two school children who were washed away in a bus are among the unverified number of missing persons
  • Authorities have appealed for residents to report missing people

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa was under a declared state of national disaster on Thursday as the death toll from floods caused by severe rains in the Eastern Cape region rose to 92.

The Eastern Cape government honored the victims of last week’s floods with a provincial Day of Mourning and a memorial service at King Sabatha Dalindyebo Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) College in Mthatha, one of the few schools whose infrastructure remained intact.

Speaking at the public memorial service, Zolile Williams, a member of the executive council, said the people of the coastal province have not been the same since the disaster hit, and many are now faced with the challenging task of rebuilding.

“Since June 9, this province has been hit hard by unprecedented, catastrophic and unimaginable disasters, where in the whole of the province, about 92 people have perished,” said Williams.

“Since that day, the Eastern Cape has not been the same. It is the first time we have experienced so many dead bodies, some of whom have not yet been found.”

An extreme weather front brought heavy rain, strong winds and snow to parts of the province caused flooding in one of South Africa’s poorest provinces last week, leaving dozens dead and roads, houses, schools and other infrastructure damaged.

At least two school children who were washed away in a bus are among the unverified number of missing persons according to local media reports, while thousands have since been displaced.

Authorities have appealed for residents to report missing people so rescuers could better understand how many people they were still looking for.

Religious leaders from different Christian religions were among the hundreds of mourners who attended the memorial ceremony, lighting candles as a symbolic expression of remembering the 92 people who died in the floods.

In a government notice on Wednesday, Elias Sithole, director of the National Disaster Management Center, said severe weather had caused property damage. and the disruption of vital services in the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, the Western Cape, and the Free State, which prompted South Africa to declare a national state of disaster.

The declaration allows the government to release funding for relief and rehabilitation and will remain in place until it lapses or until the conditions can no longer be categorized as such and is revoked by the head of the center.

President Cyril Ramaphosa recently visited the town of Mthatha, in Eastern Cape province, where the floods hit hardest.

Many of the Eastern Cape flood victims lived on floodplains close to rivers. Government officials said poor neighborhoods with informal dwellings were most severely impacted. Authorities have been criticized for the rescue response but also for the state of the infrastructure in the area.


Russia warns strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant could cause ‘Chernobyl-style catastrophe’

Russia warns strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant could cause ‘Chernobyl-style catastrophe’
Updated 57 min 32 sec ago

Russia warns strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant could cause ‘Chernobyl-style catastrophe’

Russia warns strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant could cause ‘Chernobyl-style catastrophe’
  • An Israeli military spokesperson said Israel had struck the site, but an Israeli military official later called this statement “a mistake“
  • Bushehr is Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant and was built by Russia

ST PETERSBURG: The head of Russia’s nuclear energy corporation warned on Thursday that an Israeli attack on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant could lead to a “Chernobyl-style catastrophe.”

An Israeli military spokesperson said Israel had struck the site, but an Israeli military official later called this statement “a mistake” and said he could neither confirm nor deny that the Bushehr site on the cost of the Gulf had been hit.

Bushehr is Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant and was built by Russia.

President Vladimir Putin told journalists in the early hours of Thursday that Israel had promised Russia that Moscow’s workers — who are building more nuclear facilities at the Bushehr site — would be safe, even as Israel tries to degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities by force.

The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom warned on Thursday that the situation around the plant was fraught with risk.

“If there is a strike on the operational first power unit, it will be a catastrophe comparable to Chernobyl,” the state RIA news agency cited Alexei Likhachev as saying.

Likhachev was referring to the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986, when a reactor exploded at Chernobyl in Soviet Ukraine.

An attack on Bushehr would be “beyond... evil,” Likhachev added.

Russia has evacuated some of its specialists from Bushehr, he said, but the core workforce — which Putin said numbered hundreds of people — remained on site.

“We are prepared for any scenario, including the rapid evacuation of all our employees,” RIA cited Likhachev as saying.

’GOD FORBID’
Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Israeli attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities were unacceptable and illegal.

“We are especially concerned about the safety of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, in whose operation Russian specialists are involved,” she told reporters.

“We would like to especially warn Washington against military intervention in the situation, which would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences,” Zakharova added, underlining a warning that Moscow first issued on Wednesday.

Putin, in his comments early on Thursday, was defensive when asked what more Moscow would do to help Tehran. He said it had not asked for military assistance, that ties were strong, and that the continued presence of Russian workers building more nuclear facilities at Bushehr showed Russia’s support for Iran.

But Putin also stressed the importance of Russia’s ties with Israel — even though he later condemned its behavior in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping — and said he believed a diplomatic solution that would satisfy Israel’s concerns about its own security and Iran could be found.

Russia signed a strategic partnership with Iran in January and also has a relationship with Israel, although that has been strained by Moscow’s war in Ukraine. A Russian offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict has so far not been taken up.

Mikhail Bogdanov, another Russian deputy foreign minister, recoiled on Thursday when asked by Reuters about the possibility of the US joining Israel’s war with Iran.

“God forbid, the consequences would be hard to predict,” he said.


Philippines passes law designating national day for hijab awareness

Philippines passes law designating national day for hijab awareness
Updated 19 June 2025

Philippines passes law designating national day for hijab awareness

Philippines passes law designating national day for hijab awareness
  • Muslim women say new law means they are seen as equal in nation-building
  • National Day of Awareness on Hijab to be observed each year on Feb. 1

MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signed a law recognizing the Muslim headscarf as part of the country’s traditional garment culture and designating a special day to increase awareness of it.

The new law, signed on Wednesday, declares Feb. 1 each year as the National Day of Awareness on the Hijab and Other Traditional Garments and Attire “to promote diversity, awareness, and tolerance of the various religious and cultural beliefs through the wearing of indigenous and traditional clothing, head garments and coverings.”

Government institutions, in coordination with the National Commission on Muslim Filipinos, the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples, and the National Commission for Culture and the Arts, will under the law organize events “that promote the cultural values of wearing the hijab and other traditional garments and attire.”

Muslims constitute about 10 percent of the country’s 110 million predominantly Catholic population. Most Philippine Muslims live on the southern island of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, as well as in the central-western province of Palawan.

The move to recognize the Muslim garment was welcomed by the community as a step toward promoting inclusion.

“When the government does that, it’s a recognition of the importance of hijabs to the Muslims. It’s really promoting inclusiveness in society, and it is honoring the Muslim women,” Dr. Potre Dunampatan-Diampuan, a Filipina Muslim scholar from the United Religions Initiative, told Arab News.

For Samira Gutoc, chairperson of the rights advocacy group Ako Bakwit, the new law meant that she was being seen as equal in nation-building.

“We, hijabis, aim to be part of the workforce — not just in the Philippine National Police or army, but to work alongside all,” she said.

“It is a vital measure promoting awareness, respect and acceptance of the hijab, reinforcing the rights of Muslim women to practice their faith freely.”

The National Day of Awareness on the Hijab and Other Traditional Garments and Attire will coincide with World Hijab Day, which has been observed on Feb. 1 since 2013 to promote understanding and awareness about Muslim religious and cultural practices.

“Muslim women in the Philippines had been looking forward to the time when they would be seen as equal — treated equally, without any judgment,” Princess Habibah Sarip-Paudac, the Philippines’ first news anchor to wear a hijab on national television, told Arab News.

“We are so happy with this (law’s) passage. It only means that the government is acknowledging the concerns of its people and it is after inclusivity.”


Afghans start fleeing Iran in fear of Israeli bombings

Afghans start fleeing Iran in fear of Israeli bombings
Updated 19 June 2025

Afghans start fleeing Iran in fear of Israeli bombings

Afghans start fleeing Iran in fear of Israeli bombings
  • Iran hosts the largest population of Afghan refugees and migrant workers
  • Traffic at one of the main border crossings surges to 8,000 crossings per day

KABUL: Abdulsaboor Seddiqi was in the middle of his mid-term exams at a university in Tehran when Israeli bombardment started to wreak havoc in the city. He decided to leave as soon as classes were suspended, and traveled 1,200 km to cross to Afghanistan.

Israeli airstrikes on Iran began last week, when Tel Aviv hit more than a dozen Iranian sites — including key nuclear facilities and the residences of military leaders and scientists — claiming it was aiming to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Daily attacks have been ongoing for the past seven days after Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes against Israel. The Israeli military has since been increasingly targeting civilian infrastructure.

“During the last week, we didn’t have proper phone and internet connectivity. Power cuts were more frequent,” Seddiqi, a computer science student, told Arab News.

“My family back in Herat was worried for my safety. I decided to leave.”

He is one of the thousands of Afghans who are now crossing the border every day.

At the Islam Qala crossing alone — part of the main route connecting Herat and Iran’s Mashhad — the number of people crossing daily has surged from 1,500 to as high as 8,000.

“The number of Afghans returning from Iran has drastically increased during the last week. The majority of the returnees were individuals prior to the conflict, while a lot of families also returned in the last week,” said Naser Azimi, a health worker at the Islam Qala health center.

“The number of Afghans returning through Islam Qala every day increased to 3,000 and even reached 8,000 people in a day.”

Abdulbasit Qazizada, who has been working in Tehran for the past two years, arrived in Herat on Monday.

“There was an unusual rush at the Islam Qala border crossing when I was coming back,” he said. “There’s so much fear and anxiety across all cities of Iran, especially Tehran. Many Afghans also work or live there.”

Over decades of armed conflict at home, about 5 million Afghan refugees and migrant workers settled in neighboring Iran, according to official data. Iran is home to the largest Afghan diaspora in the world. Most of them live in Tehran.

Some Afghan families have lost contact with their relatives living in the Iranian capital since the outbreak of violence.

“My brother went to Iran a few months ago for work. We heard in the news on Friday that Israel attacked Iran and killed a lot of people,” said Mohammad Naser, a resident of Kabul, whose brother and two cousins were in Tehran.

“It’s been a week that we don’t know anything about them. My mother and my family members are very concerned. We don’t know if they are OK. We feel helpless because we can’t do anything.”

According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, at least 224 people have been killed and 1,481 wounded in Israeli attacks. Various media outlets have reported, however, that casualty numbers could be at least twice as high.