DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel鈥檚 ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show 鈥淔rankly Speaking,鈥� Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

鈥淯nfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,鈥� he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. 鈥淚t鈥檚 certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It鈥檚 on its back foot,鈥� Maksad said. 鈥淗ezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still 鈥� putting up a fight there.鈥�

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia鈥檚 firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah鈥檚 fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. 鈥淗ezbollah鈥檚 central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,鈥� he told Katie Jensen, the host of 鈥淔rankly Speaking.鈥�

鈥淣asrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group鈥檚 involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That鈥檚 now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.鈥�

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah鈥檚 own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

鈥淧ublic sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,鈥� he said.

鈥淚t fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.鈥�

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

鈥淎bout one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.鈥�

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

鈥淚t does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,鈥� he said.

鈥淗ezbollah has essentially wagered the country鈥檚 fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,鈥� he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

鈥淭he Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,鈥� he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

鈥淲hat I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.鈥�

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah鈥檚 infrastructure.

Hezbollah鈥檚 alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country鈥檚 already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon鈥檚 parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.

鈥淗e can鈥檛 do it alone,鈥� Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, 鈥渢here鈥檚 been a void in the Sunni community and it鈥檚 been hard to replace that.鈥�

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

鈥淭hey have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel鈥檚 defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,鈥� he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. 鈥淚ran and Hezbollah have time  鈥� they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,鈥� Maksad said. 鈥淏erri and others remember that. So, they鈥檙e going to be moving very slowly, and they鈥檙e going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.鈥�

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as 鈥渁 potential fork in the road.鈥�

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

鈥淚t can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of 鈥楳r. Security,鈥� having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,鈥� he said.

However, Iran is on 鈥渁 completely separate track鈥� and the Middle East could be in the midst of a 鈥渕ulti-stage conflict.鈥�

Maksad added: 鈥淥nce we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran鈥檚) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora鈥檚 box. So, we鈥檙e continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.鈥�

Discussing the stances of 黑料社区 and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

鈥淭here鈥檚 been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,鈥� he said.

鈥淭hat has rightfully caused countries like 黑料社区 and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don鈥檛 see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we鈥檙e going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.鈥�