Beirut: With Iran-backed Hezbollah on the defensive after a series of heavy Israeli blows, the United States and Iran are locked in a showdown over Lebanon鈥檚 future, analysts said.
Hezbollah, the most powerful regional force backed by Iran, which arms and finances it, has long held sway in Lebanon.
But the group鈥檚 influence is now in question after Israel鈥檚 assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a significant setback.
Hezbollah鈥檚 losses have left Lebanon in a 鈥渢ug of war between Iran and the United States,鈥� said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank.
鈥淭he Israelis with the Americans... are trying to use military force to try to transform the balance of power in Lebanon to their advantage,鈥� he told AFP.
鈥淭here are no signs that the Iranians are going to accept this without a fight.鈥�
Hezbollah is considered better armed than Lebanon鈥檚 national military and remains the only group that did not put down its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war.
Last year, it opened a new front with Israel over the conflict in Gaza, in support of its ally Hamas.
It carefully calibrated attacks to avoid a full-blown conflict, which eventually came on September 23 when Israel stepped up bombing of Hezbollah strongholds, including south Beirut.
The United States has pushed for ceasefire, but has also expressed support for Israeli attempts to 鈥渄egrade Hezbollah鈥檚 infrastructure.鈥�
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that 鈥渋t鈥檚 clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest 鈥� a strong interest 鈥� in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the country and its future.鈥�
Kim Ghattas, the author of 鈥淏lack Wave,鈥� a book on the Saudi-Iran rivalry, said: 鈥淟ebanon is caught between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other.鈥�
But 鈥淲ashington鈥檚 vision doesn鈥檛 necessarily align with Israel鈥檚 in terms of war goals and tactics,鈥� she said.
鈥淭he US would certainly like to see a weakening of Hezbollah, maybe even the disarming of the group, but it is wary of Israel going too far with the military campaign.鈥�
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon it could face destruction 鈥渓ike Gaza鈥� as Israel vowed to keep fighting Hezbollah until it secures its northern border.
鈥淚 say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end,鈥� Netanyahu said on October 8.
Iran, for its part, 鈥渨ants to preserve what鈥檚 left of its assets in Lebanon and ensure the survival of the regime,鈥� Ghattas said, referring to the Islamic republic.
鈥淚t needs to walk a fine line between continuing to support Hezbollah... while signalling it is ready for diplomacy.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 meddling drew a rare rebuke from Lebanon last week, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused it of 鈥渂latant interference鈥� over remarks attributed to a Tehran official regarding ceasefire terms.
Mikati charged that Iran had attempted 鈥渢o establish an unacceptable guardianship over Lebanon,鈥� after Iran鈥檚 parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly told France鈥檚 Le Figaro newspaper that his government was ready to negotiate on the implementation of a 2006 UN resolution that calls for only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to be deployed in southern Lebanon.
As the Israel-Hezbollah war nears its one-month mark, calls have mounted for Lebanon to elect a president after a two-year void due to political deadlock.
The last president, Michel Aoun, was a Hezbollah ally, making the vote a test for the country鈥檚 political trends.
In an interview with AFP, Mikati said serious efforts were underway to elect a president, in line with calls from the United States and other Western allies.
Political leaders in Lebanon too have made careful appeals for a new president, trying to avoid impressions they were leveraging Hezbollah鈥檚 setbacks for political gain.
鈥淭he Lebanese parties hostile to Hezbollah understand that the situation is very delicate,鈥� said Young.
鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want to provoke the Shiite community, which already feels humiliated and angry and isolated and let鈥檚 remember, is armed,鈥� he added.
While suspicion between sects has grown since the Israeli-Hezbollah war forced displaced Shiite communities into Christian-majority areas, many are wary of a repeat of the country鈥檚 15-year war.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 also recalls bitter memories for Lebanese and ultimately led to the creation of Hezbollah, one of Israel鈥檚 most formidable foes.
鈥淚t seems that politicians in Lebanon have learned lessons of the past, but the longer this current limbo and war lasts, the harder it will be to keep tensions under control,鈥� said Ghattas.