Saudi diplomacy could reshape region, Israeli journalist tells WEF

People attend the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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  • Barak Ravid: Potential Hezbollah-Israel war would make Gaza 鈥榣ook like a walk in the park鈥�
  • Iranian scholar: 鈥楴o Arab country will accept Iranian political or military dominance in the region鈥�

LONDON: Strategic deals launched by powers including 黑料社区 could reshape a region simmering with tensions, an Israeli journalist on a panel at the World Economic Forum said on Friday.
In the panel titled 鈥淎nticipating the Middle East in 2024,鈥� experts and government officials discussed the turbulent regional situation, with the Gaza conflict, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and potential Saudi normalization with Israel high on the agenda.
鈥淚f the US wants to manage the (Gaza) conflict 鈥� it needs to embrace a pathway to two states,鈥� said Jane Harman, chair of the US Commission on the National Defense Strategy.
鈥淚 think that without doing that, there will never be conflict management. And if that happens, the outlier is Iran.鈥�
Mahmood Sariolghalam, professor of international relations at the National University of Iran and non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, said: 鈥淣o Arab country will accept Iranian political or military dominance in the region. And I think that also includes Shiite Iraq.鈥�
He added: 鈥淚 think Iran is wasting its national resources in promoting this kind of foreign policy. And my estimate would be that it鈥檚 going to take at least 10 years, from my observations of the country, for Iran to realize that the real ingredient of power isn鈥檛 the military.
鈥淩ather, it鈥檚 capital markets, platform companies and development of national infrastructure, and integrating with the rest of the region economically.鈥�
Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist with US news website Axios, said Saudi-Iranian convergence on regional matters could open a path to peace.
鈥淏oth 黑料社区 and Iran have a lot of shared interests, especially, I think, Yemen,鈥� he added. 鈥淏oth countries wanted to sort of end it (bilateral tensions) or at least reach a long-term truce, as we鈥檝e seen over the last year.
鈥淎nd economically, both Iran and 黑料社区 have a lot of interest to promote trade and things like that, and to try and at least cool down the tensions between the Saudi axis, if there is one, and what Iran calls the Axis of Resistance 鈥� and I think they managed to do it pretty well.
鈥淚 think the Saudis 鈥� don鈥檛 see the rapprochement with Iran as contradictory to their efforts to normalize relations with Israel. I think they both can live at the same time.鈥�
Sariolghalam said Tehran is playing a balancing act through its network of militias 鈥� 鈥渟ending messages鈥� to its enemies but also preventing escalation in any of its strongholds.
鈥淥n Lebanon, I think it鈥檚 very clear that Iran isn鈥檛 interested in escalation, because this time around it isn鈥檛 going to be like 2006,鈥� he added, referring to Israel鈥檚 last invasion of its northern neighbor.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a great chance that Hezbollah might be devastated through not only Israeli operations but also American involvement 鈥� And Lebanon is an extremely vulnerable country and society.鈥�
Ravid agreed, saying Hezbollah, in its border operations in southern Lebanon that began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, 鈥渞ealized that they don鈥檛 need to go on an all-out escalation against Israel in order to have a lot of impact.鈥�
However, Hezbollah鈥檚 unwillingness to escalate strikes against Israel could change, Harman warned, saying the Lebanese government鈥檚 coalition structure makes managing the country鈥檚 security 鈥渧ery difficult.鈥�
Ravid also warned that 鈥渋t鈥檚 totally possible that the worst is still to come,鈥� describing a potential Hezbollah-Israel war as making the Gaza conflict 鈥渓ook like a walk in the park.鈥�
He said the US should be making 鈥渕uch more robust鈥� efforts to contain the situation between the two sides, 鈥渂ecause if the border between Lebanon and Israel doesn鈥檛 (calm) down within weeks, it can really blow up.鈥�
Despite the region鈥檚 conflicts, economic progress presents a major opportunity this year, Sariolghalam said, predicting that Gulf Cooperation Council countries 鈥渨ill continue to thrive鈥� throughout 2024.
鈥淭he region is going to have, in parallel, continuing conflict, and at the same time staggering economic progress,鈥� he added.
Ravid warned that despite prospects for Saudi normalization with Israel, momentum in Tel Aviv is moving toward a one-state 鈥渞eality鈥� that will fail to serve as a long-term solution for Palestinians.
鈥淲e see the one-state reality in the West Bank right now,鈥� he said. 鈥淲hen you have settlers and Palestinians, settlers have rights and Palestinians don鈥檛 鈥� and this is where this thing is going.鈥�