Hajj officials need to address fake campaigns and crowd management 
This year is the first time the Hajj season will witness normal numbers of pilgrims traveling to ºÚÁÏÉçÇø for the six-day ritual since 2019, after which it was tempered by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent health restrictions introduced by the authorities.
I had the privilege of participating in the 2019 Hajj and of helping to plan the 2020 Hajj during the pandemic with the elite staff of the General Presidency for the Affairs of the Two Holy Mosques and the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah. I also taught crowd science and strategic planning as an associate professor at Umm Al-Qura University in 2021, and have produced two initiatives in the technological management of pilgrim crowds. My relationship with the Hajj is a long one, by virtue of both my academic knowledge and field experience.
The state treasury does not benefit from Hajj and Umrah revenue — we could even say that the Kingdom’s expenditure on it exceeds its income. What goes to the state treasury is the tax due on services of all kinds and, in the past, visa fees of a little more than $3. This year, for the first time, the Hajj and Umrah visa is free. Insurance for pilgrims was reduced by 73 percent and is estimated at about $23 this year. The actual beneficiary of all this is the private sector.
Hajj and Umrah play a major role in the flow of foreign exchange and the creation of job opportunities, and their combined revenues amount to an average of $12 billion annually, most of which are recorded as direct profits for hotels, restaurants, travel and tourism agencies, as well as airlines, mobile phone companies, and various manufacturers and importers.
The state is working on investments in the Hajj and Umrah sector, with a value exceeding $50 billion, to ensure the accommodation of 30 million Umrah pilgrims and five million Hajj pilgrims by 2030. It is a target that creates logistical challenges. In addition to infrastructure projects, which include the expansion of the Grand Mosque of Makkah at a cost of $100 billion, the Haramain High Speed Railway project at $8 billion, and the Masar Makkah project at $27 billion, the Kingdom has also activated eight historical sites to enrich the Hajj experience, and ensure the holy sites become a destination for visitors to Makkah throughout the year.
The Hajj and Umrah sector provides more than 200,000 seasonal job opportunities, and enhancing the holy places will transform those jobs from temporary to permanent roles.
The revenues from Hajj and Umrah represent a continuous resource in ºÚÁÏÉçÇø that will not cease as pilgrimage to the holy sites is a core pillar of Islam. Muslims are required to perform the Hajj once in their lifetime if they are financially and physically able, and as such, with two billion people — about 25 percent of the world’s population — identifying as Muslim, demand is increasing.
According to the Pew Research Center in the US, Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the world, and Muslims will reach a three billion global population by 2050. Islam will be the first religion in the world by 2070. This trend will increase the volume of cash flowing into the Hajj and Umrah sector.
MasterCard has indicated that visitors to Makkah spent $20 billion in 2019 alone, making the city the world’s second biggest tourist destination in terms of spending.
However, something happening every Hajj season is the increase in numbers of pilgrims being sold fake packages. With this trend comes serious issues over crowd management. It is necessary to find effective solutions to both problems and to learn why many are attracted to these fake campaigns, even though the Ministry of Hajj licenses 77 companies to serve people.
The reason may be that they believe the promises of the fraudsters that they can employ their social networks and relationships to bypass the existing system. This is, however, not possible with the presence of automation, smart cards, and bracelets, and before that, the Control and Anti-Corruption Authority. In 2019, 132 fake campaigns were stopped, and over 330,000 people were turned away from performing Hajj returned — nearly 30 percent of the total number of permitted pilgrims.
Because of these huge numbers, crowd control decision-makers may evaluate what they see in front of them based on inaccurate or changing data. In my opinion, the most appropriate use of artificial intelligence techniques is analyzing television footage and converting it into numbers in a way that enables the concerned bodies to prepare in real time and make the right decisions. Human effort is required, and machines cannot replace all manpower in the field, but smart cameras and their huge databases, which are capable of storing a large amount of information and then retrieving it in seconds to predict and avoid critical situations hours before they occur, can help eliminate the possibilities of human error.
• Dr. Bader bin Saud is an opinion columnist for Al-Riyadh newspaper, a media and knowledge management researcher, and the former deputy commander of the Special Forces for Hajj and Umrah in ºÚÁÏÉçÇø.
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