Sudan generals face off in post-coup power struggle

Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan speaks during the 5th Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5) in Doha on March 4, 2023. (AFP/File)
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  • Once united front of army chief Al-Burhan, his deputy Daglo has devolved into 鈥榖rinkmanship鈥�

KHARTOUM: Sixteen months since Sudan鈥檚 top generals ousted a transition to civilian rule, the coup leaders are embroiled in a dangerous power struggle with deepening rivalries within the security forces, analysts warn.

Army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo worked together in October 2021 to remove the short-lived transitional authorities put in place following the toppling of Omar Bashir鈥檚 regime in 2019.

Magdi Al-Gizouli, from the Rift Valley Institute think tank, said their once united front has devolved into 鈥渂rinkmanship.鈥�

鈥淭he power struggle in Sudan is no longer between military and civilians,鈥� Gizouli said. 鈥淚t is now Burhan against Daglo, each with his own alliance.鈥�

The coup triggered international aid cuts and sparked near-weekly protests, adding to the deepening political and economic troubles of one of the world鈥檚 poorest countries.

Burhan, a career soldier from northern Sudan who rose the ranks under the three-decade rule of now jailed general Bashir, has said the coup was 鈥渘ecessary鈥� to include more factions into politics.

But Daglo, also known as Hemeti, the commander of the much-feared paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has since called the coup a 鈥渕istake.鈥�

Created in 2013, the RSF force emerged from the Janjaweed militia that Bashir unleashed a decade earlier in the western region of Darfur against non-Arab rebels, where it was accused of war crimes by rights groups.

Daglo 鈥� from Darfur鈥檚 pastoralist camel-herding Arab Rizeigat people 鈥� said the coup had not brought change but rather the return of Bashir-era regime loyalists, angering religious factions.

Disagreements between the two generals also reflect long-running divisions between the regular army and Daglo鈥檚 RSF, said military expert Amin Ismail.

鈥淏urhan wants the RSF to be integrated into the army in accordance with the rules and regulations within the army,鈥� said Gizouli.

鈥淒aglo seems to want restructuring of the top army command to take place first, so that he can be part of it before the integration.鈥�

In December, Burhan and Daglo signed a tentative deal with multiple factions 鈥� including the key civilian bloc, the Forces for Freedom and Change 鈥� as part of a two-phase political process toward a civilian-led transition.

But critics called the deal 鈥渧ague鈥� and cast doubt on the generals鈥� pledge to exit politics after a civilian government was installed.

鈥淭he December deal highlighted the disagreements which have their different aspirations at its core,鈥� said Ismail.

Gizouli says the accord was 鈥渁 delaying tactic鈥� for Burhan, while Daglo sought 鈥渢o improve his competitiveness鈥� and bill himself as 鈥渁n ally to the FFC.鈥�

He said: 鈥淚t is clear that neither of them has any intention to exit politics, as they have been investing in alliances that would allow them to continue.鈥�

Daglo has been jet-setting across the region drumming up support, traveling to neighboring Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea, two African nations with close ties with Russia.

The day after Burhan visited Chad last month, Daglo started a visit of his own.

Analyst Kholood Khair said a recent initiative by Egypt has appeared to favor Burhan and 鈥渃atalyzed renewed tensions between the generals.鈥�

In February, Cairo hosted a workshop among multiple Sudanese factions including those who opposed the December deal, notably two ex-rebel commanders 鈥� Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim and Darfur governor Minni Minnawi.

Khair, in an article for the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said the Cairo initiative left political groups seeking to make pacts 鈥渨ith one general over the other.

鈥淭his is a false choice, and one that can only lead to further polarization of the political space and, potentially, an armed confrontation between Burhan and Hemeti鈥檚 forces, with disastrous consequences.鈥�

Daglo, in a recent speech to RSF troops, said his disagreement was not with the armed forces.

鈥淭he disagreement is with the people clinging on to power,鈥� said Daglo, insisting he backed the installation of a civilian government.

鈥淲e are against anyone who wants to be a dictator.鈥�

On Saturday, Sudan鈥檚 armed forces hit back, dismissing accusations of 鈥渢he unwillingness鈥� of the army鈥檚 generals 鈥渢o complete the process of change and democratic transformation.鈥�

It said in a statement: 鈥淚t is an open attempt to gain political sympathy, and to obstruct the transitional process.鈥�

On Sunday, Sudan鈥檚 ruling sovereign council said Burhan and Daglo held security talks.

Ismail said that while the outright military confrontation that many fear is unlikely, it is not the only potential outcome. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a political disagreement ... but it could push the Sudanese people to rise up and turn on all of them,鈥� Ismail said.