Is austerity really to blame for Iran protests?

In this Saturday, Dec. 30, 2017 file photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, university students attend a protest inside Tehran University while anti-riot Iranian police prevent them to join other protesters, in Tehran, Iran. As protests over Iran鈥檚 faltering economy rapidly spread across the country, a channel on a mobile messaging app run by an exiled journalist helped fan the passions of some of those who took to the street. The Telegram app shut down a channel run by Roohallah Zam after Iranian authorities complained that it was inciting violence. (AP Photo, File)

Tehran: Despite demonstrators chanting provocative slogans against Iran鈥檚 Islamic rulers, analysts say the roots of the current protests lie in the same anger at economic austerity that has roiled many countries.
Two people have been killed and hundreds arrested in protests that began in second city Mashhad on Thursday.
Though they started over high living costs, they quickly spread across the country and turned against the Islamic system as a whole, with chants of 鈥淒eath to the dictator鈥� and attacks on symbols of the regime lending them a revolutionary air.
But analysts say the protests are still rooted in bread-and-butter issues as patience runs thin with officials for failing to improve livelihoods.
鈥淚t can be an uncomfortable idea for some people to treat Iran the same as other countries,鈥� said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an analyst and founder of the Europe-Iran Business Forum.
鈥淏ut what brings Iranians out on the streets most consistently are normal economic problems 鈥� frustration with the lack of jobs, uncertainty about their children鈥檚 future,鈥� he told AFP.
He blames the unrest on the austerity measures introduced by President Hassan Rouhani since he came to power in 2013, which included another round of welfare cuts and fuel price rises in the latest budget announced a few weeks ago.
鈥淩ouhani has run austerity budgets with the idea that it鈥檚 a tough but necessary pill to swallow to manage inflation and currency problems and try to improve Iran鈥檚 attractiveness for investment,鈥� said Batmanghelidj.
鈥淏ut choosing years of austerity immediately after a very tough period of sanctions is bound to test people鈥檚 patience.鈥�
At a cabinet meeting Sunday, Rouhani said government bodies must provide 鈥渟pace for criticism,鈥� but also warned protesters that violence was unacceptable.
As the protests have gathered steam, the government has blamed 鈥渉ostile elements鈥� based abroad.
But others suspect Rouhani鈥檚 hard-line rivals of stoking the initial unrest.
They point to rare statements of support for the protesters from hard-line clerics such as Mashhad鈥檚 Friday prayers leader Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, who described their demands as 鈥渏ustified.鈥�
鈥淭here is evidence, particularly in Mashhad, that protests were directed for political gain,鈥� Tehran-based analyst Amir Mohebbian told the Tasnim news agency.
鈥淣aturally they did not expect such a surge. One cannot play with protests,鈥� he added.

Nonetheless, anger over economic issues has been palpable in recent years, and dominated the last election in May.
Minor protests have been bubbling away: in the weeks leading up to the current unrest, the union-linked ILNA news agency reported on hundreds of oil workers and truck drivers protesting the late payment of wages; tractor makers in Tabriz against their factory鈥檚 closure; and Tehran tire workers at bonuses being delayed.
A major groundswell of anger has also been building over the collapse of unauthorized lending companies that left millions of investors out of pocket.
These companies mushroomed in the financial free-for-all under former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, lending wildly during the construction boom and collapsing when the bubble burst.
Rouhani said in December that such lending companies had captured a quarter of the financial market with three to four million accounts by the time he took power in 2013 and started shutting them down.
鈥淚鈥檓 not surprised by these recent protests. For the past two years, we have witnessed street protests against banks and credit institutions,鈥� said Tehran-based political analyst Mojtaba Mousavi.
鈥淓veryone says the protesters right now are from the lower class, but many are middle class people who lost lots of their assets,鈥� he told AFP.

All this has combined with a wider sense that corruption and a rigged system have created immense wealth for a narrow elite, while a stifled media and lack of civil liberties have left few avenues for complaint 鈥� a point even hard-liners have begun to accept.
鈥淥ur constitution recognizes the right to protest but in practice there is no mechanism to do so,鈥� Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam, spokesman for the conservative Combatant Clergy Association, told the ISNA news agency.
鈥淥fficials should listen to the people. The media, too, has a responsibility to cover the protests.鈥�
With no clear leadership structure behind the protests, analysts remain doubtful that they could evolve into a serious threat to the regime.
Some see the shift to political slogans as a boon for the authorities, allowing them to crack down on protesters as anti-social and violent elements.
鈥淭he system prefers political protests over economic because they鈥檙e easier to control,鈥� said Mousavi.
鈥淧eople protesting economic issues will give up when it turns political because unrest can only worsen the economic situation of the country.鈥�