Deadly mosque attack puts Egypt鈥檚 Sinai strategy in spotlight

The Egyptian military has succeeded in hitting some of Daesh鈥檚 top commanders. (Reuters)

CAIRO: Egypt鈥檚 years-long military campaign against a terrorist insurgency in the north of the Sinai Peninsula is under increasing scrutiny following a devastating mosque attack last week.
More than 300 people were killed in Friday鈥檚 bomb and gun assault 鈥� the deadliest in the country鈥檚 recent history 鈥� highlighting the insurgents鈥� ability to carry out spectacular attacks despite the deployment of tens of thousands of troops.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi vowed to respond with 鈥渂rutal force,鈥� and the army announced it had destroyed several of the vehicles used in the attack and killed their occupants.
But for some analysts, the army鈥檚 muscular reprisals are not enough.
鈥淚 think (the Sinai) needs (a) smarter military presence,鈥� said Zack Gold, an analyst at the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Rafik Hariri Center.
鈥淭he job of the military is not to protect the military,鈥� he said.
鈥淭he job of the military is to protect the population and to secure the territory.鈥�
He said currently soldiers were usually confined to checkpoints on the region鈥檚 roads instead of securing the population centers, where the insurgency has crippled the economy.
Timothy Kaldas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said multiple foreign diplomats had told him that when they urge Egyptian officials to change tactics, 鈥渢hey get a lot of pushback.鈥�
鈥淭hey are basically told 鈥榥ot to interfere in Egypt's affairs鈥�,鈥� he said.
He said discussion of security strategy took place within a 鈥渟mall circle鈥� and that the public was 鈥渘ot allowed to participate in that conversation to discuss what is problematic and what could be better.鈥�
Egypt鈥檚 Western allies acknowledge the army has made some headway in containing the insurgency and forcing Daesh to change its tactics.
Large-scale attacks on the military have grown less frequent, as Daesh has increasingly turned to a war of attrition involving roadside bombings and sniper attacks, inflicting fewer casualties on the army.
The military has also succeeded in hitting some of the group鈥檚 top commanders, including overall leader Abu Duaa Al-Ansari who was killed in an airstrike last year.
It has largely ended the once-lucrative smuggling trade with the Gaza Strip by destroying tunnels under the border with the Palestinian territory and razing parts of the divided frontier town of Rafah to create a buffer zone.
But the home demolitions have stoked further resentment in a region that has felt marginalized for decades.
Kaldas said that situation 鈥渕akes it easier for ISIS (Daesh) to recruit, it makes people less interested in supporting the government.鈥�
Daesh, too, has sparked some antagonism with its tactics.
The terrorists have alienated the region鈥檚 largest tribe, the Tarabin, by executing dozens of its members for allegedly cooperating with the army.
Some Tarabin have formed militias to fight Daesh.
El-Sisi came to power after leading the military overthrow of his radical predecessor Mohammed Mursi in 2013 promising to restore security following the chaos of the Arab Spring uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak.
But four years on, the situation in Sinai is far from stable.
In November 2014, shortly after El-Sisi鈥檚 election as president, Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, a Sinai-based radical group previously linked to Al-Qaeda, swore allegiance to Daesh.
Friday鈥檚 attack was carried out by some 30 armed men carrying flags similar to the black banner of Daesh, although the terrorist organisation has not formally claimed it.
The emergence of Daesh in Sinai strengthened the terrorist insurgency that began in 2013, with the Sinai militants drawing from the expertise of Daesh operatives elsewhere.
The Sinai Peninsula had long been demilitarized under the terms of the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel but as the violence intensified the government responded by ramping up its military presence, with the tacit approval of Israel.
The region's biggest army was able to prevent Daesh repeating its successes in Iraq, where it seized a third of the country, including major urban centres, before declaring its "caliphate" in 2014.
One attempt by Daesh in July 2015 to seize the town of Sheikh Zuweid prompted the military to unleash F-16 jets, forcing the terrorists to withdraw.