Deadliest ever bombing highlights Somalia鈥檚 weakness

Somali soldiers patroling on the scene of the explosion of a truck bomb in the center of Mogadishu. Somalia's deadliest ever attack, a truck bomb in the capital Mogadishu, that killed at least 358 dead, highlights the fragility of the Somali federal government, analysts said. (AFP)

NAIROBI: Last weekend鈥檚 truck bombing in Mogadishu killed at least 358 people, making it the deadliest in Somalia鈥檚 history, an attack that analysts say underscores the fragility of the internationally-backed government.
With Somalia鈥檚 security forces disorganized and riddled with corruption, and deepening suspicion between central and regional governments, the Oct. 14 blast highlights the Al-Qaeda-aligned Al-Shabab鈥檚 ability to exploit state weakness and prosecute asymmetric war to deadly effect.
Militarily, the situation has been largely static in recent months.
Evicted from the capital in 2011, the Al-Shabab has maintained its control in many rural parts of central and southern Somalia. 鈥淭here have been no recent strategic gains鈥� on either side, says Roland Marchal, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris 鈥� neither for the Al-Shabab nor the Somali army, backed by African Union troops and an increasingly active US military.
鈥淥n the surface at least, what we see is stagnation,鈥� says Matt Bryden, founder of the Nairobi-based Sahan Research think-tank, who points out that the Al-Shabab has proven resilient, able to replace commanders and fighters killed by US airstrikes.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), however, said Friday that Al-Shabab has recently regained control of several areas outside Mogadishu, including Barire, a strategically significant town on a major road 45 km from the capital.
鈥淎verting attacks in Mogadishu is ever harder when surrounding districts revert back to Al-Shabab control,鈥� the ICG says.
The Al-Shabab鈥檚 intelligence network allows it to exploit flaws and weakness in the security apparatus.
For example, the recent Al-Shabab gains around Mogadishu were, the ICG says, permitted by the withdrawal of government forces in a row over unpaid salaries.
Attempts to establish new security checkpoints at the city鈥檚 gateways have also been subverted, as happened last Saturday, when the truck, though packed with explosives, was waved through by officers.
鈥淲e know from past experience that they鈥檝e been able to infiltrate security forces, or to put their own people in government uniforms,鈥� says Bryden.
Also significant: The bombing last weekend came days after both the country鈥檚 defense minister and army chief resigned, without explanation. The simultaneous departure weakened President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, a situation used by Al-Shabab to its advantage.
鈥淚t is not that the Al-Shabab is very strong, it is that the others are really weak,鈥� Marchal says.
Federalism in Somalia has existed on paper since 2004, but only began to take shape five years ago. There are now five federal regional states, not including Somaliland, which claims independence and does not recognize the central government.
Relations between Mogadishu and the regions are fraught, as each struggles for a greater share of power and seeks foreign allies.
Security stakes are high because if the embryonic national army is only deployed in and around the capital, and the 22,000 AU troops secure outlying urban centers, then it is left to regional militias to fight the Al-Shabab in the bulk of the country.
Recently, the diplomatic crisis pitting the UAE and 黑料社区 against Qatar 鈥渉as aggravated such friction,鈥� says ICG.
Some federal regional states have taken sides with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to the dismay of Mogadishu, which has sought to remain neutral in a bid to maintain the substantial it receives from both sides.
Marchal deplores the 鈥渃haos brought by the Gulf crisis, where any federal president, under the pretext of receiving funding, makes ill-judged foreign policy declarations.鈥�
鈥淯nless the government shifts its posture and engages with the federal member states so they become partners in fighting Al-Shabab, instead of trying to fight both Al-Shabab and the federal member states, I don鈥檛 think we鈥檙e going to see very much progress,鈥� says Bryden.
ICG says political opponents could seek to take advantage of the latest crisis to bring down the president. It urges him to 鈥渨ork quickly to improve relations with federal states鈥� and resolve quarrels over distribution of resources. Otherwise, analysts warn, the only winner will be the Al-Shabab. The worsening violence has prompted some UN officials to raise alarm over 鈥渆arly warning signs of genocide鈥� in CAR, as did former UN aid chief Stephen O鈥橞rien in late August.
Adama Dieng 鈥� the UN鈥檚 special adviser for the prevention of genocide who visited the country in early October 鈥� denied the country was in a 鈥減re-genocide situation鈥� but said the situation there is 鈥渟erious.鈥�
There are still 鈥渋ndicators鈥� that could result 鈥渋n crimes of genocide鈥� if they are not tackled, he said.
Touadera, whose election with the full support of the UN and France sparked a wave of hope, also pushed back on the warnings, saying 鈥渢alk about genocide at this stage... is not justified.鈥�
Guterres previously said there was 鈥渆thnic cleansing鈥� in many parts of the country, but he will invariably be asked to comment about genocide.
To the displaced population, a visit from Guterres is a welcome relief.
鈥淭he peacekeepers must help us more and be more visible,鈥� said Regis, who was forced to flee from the east of the country to Bangui. 鈥淚t is imperative that the UN chief make them understand that.鈥�